Greenspan on the Daily Show

I love this Daily Show clip with Alan Greenspan.  On emotion and economic forecasting. From 2007.

I’ve been dealing with these big mathematical models of forecasting the economy, and I’m looking at what’s going on in the last few weeks. … If I could figure out a way to determine whether or not people are more fearful or changing to more euphoric … I don’t need any of this other stuff.  I could forecast the economy better than any way I know.

The trouble is that we can’t figure that out. I’ve been in the forecasting business for 50 years. … I’m no better than I ever was, and nobody else is. Forecasting 50 years ago was as good or as bad as it is today. And the reason is that human nature hasn’t changed. We can’t improve ourselves.”

You just bummed the [bleep] out of me.

I’ve seen it in two separate talks now, from Peter Dodds (co-author of “Measuring the Happiness of Large-Scale Written Expression”) and Eric Gilbert (co-author of “Widespread Worry and the Stock Market”).

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